Application of species distribution model to predict high risk areas at HPAI occurrence in republic of Korea


The poultry industry in the Republic of Korea (ROK) (i.e., South Korea) has suffered each year due to the introduction of novel highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) strains since the early 2000s. In every HPAI outbreak, migration of wild waterfowl from other countries has been suspected as a major source of novel HPAI strains introduction to domestic poultry farms. The goal of the collaborative research project between CADMS and Veterinary epidemiology division of Animal and Plant Quarantine Agency (APQA) in ROK is to develop the model for the prediction of high-risk area of HPAI outbreaks in wild birds and domestic poultry farms in ROK. This research is designed to monthly predict 1) spatial distribution of seven wild bird species and two rodent species, 2) risk maps of HPAI identification in wild birds  3) risk maps of HPAI outbreaks in domestic poultry farms using the cutting-edge method of maximum entropy ecological niche modeling based on 21 environmental factors (Geographical and climate). This work will provide valuable knowledge and operational tools for poultry producers and decision makers in animal    health in ROK to rapidly detect the novel HPAI strain in wild birds and better prevent and control HPAI outbreaks.

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